More DC fast chargers are being built across the United States. Electrify America expects to install or have under development approximately 800 total charging station with about 3,500 chargers by December 2021.
The evolution of the most mature sector of the manufacturing industry
With the outbreak of Covid-19 and dramatic changes in the world trade war, we have profoundly understood the significance and meaning of “speed” in this era of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity). At the same time, the automobile industry is also undergoing fundamental and even disruptive changes in the fields, which are far beyond the confirmed engineering technologies or business models.
The engineering technologies and quality and supply chain systems in the automobile industry have accumulated for 130 years, as the most mature and complete core sector of the manufacturing industry. As what we have foreseen, the inner working mechanism of automobiles will undergo tremendous changes in the coming 10 to 15 years. Electrification, digitization, autonomous driving and sharing mobility will change and reshape the entire industry in an unprecedented way.
Therefore, creating sustainable value, mastering the most cutting-edge technology, and exploring the new business models become the only way in which the automotive industry can respond to this fundamental change. It has been predicted by IHS data that, by 2032, the global new energy vehicle output will account for 62% of the total vehicle output, including about 44% of the hybrid vehicle output and about 18% of the pure electric vehicle output—electrification represents the general trend.
In terms of development, ADAS (advanced driving assistance system) and vehicle-mounted PCs are clear manifestations of the intelligence trend. Japan has accumulated strong technologies as the pioneer of new energy vehicles while China and Europe, as the core engine of the world’s new mobility market, are in the leading positions within the industry.
During the past 10 years, the Chinese government has been promoting new energy vehicle technologies through its policies to achieve the national strategy of overtaking. The Fuel-efficient and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020) issued by the State Council in 2012 proposed the specific industrial goals for the new energy vehicle industry. Both the subsidies for new energy vehicle purchases and the dual-credit policy that was implemented in 2019 are guiding and supporting the new energy vehicle industry.
With the growth of this industry, huge potential is hidden in cities not subject to purchase restrictions, and the market driving force for electric vehicle consumption will become increasingly prominent. It is estimated that, by 2027, the generations born in the 2000s, 1990s and 1980s will account for 7.2%, 41.8% and 35.4% respectively among Chinese users purchasing new cars. These individuals have grown up in an Internet environment and this is a main driving force behind vehicles evolving towards advanced intelligent mobile terminals.
In the past two years, European governments have also started to promote new energy vehicle development and learned from China to release the policy of granting subsidies to new energy vehicle purchases. European governments have even launched stricter policies of removing internal combustion engine vehicles from the market.
European governments’ policies and laws on carbon dioxide emissions and strong growth of SUV models are the main forces driving electrification. In terms of policies, the Netherlands and Norway will ban the sales of new gasoline vehicles and diesel vehicles starting in 2025; Germany will start the ban starting in 2030; England and France will start the ban in 2040.
OEMs that fail to meet the EU emission standards will be fined billions of euros starting in 2020. In terms of the market, the explosive demand for SUVs in the EU market has caused higher emissions, intensifying the pressure on OEMs.
The new energy development in the United States is relatively lagging behind because of the different oil policies adopted by the U.S. government, plus, the habits of U.S. consumers. However, the new energy vehicle technology boom and business model led by Tesla is the catalyst of disruptive innovation. Tesla has overturned and threatened the dominant position and technical barriers of traditional vehicle enterprises. The Model3 has brought a catfish effect in China’s new energy vehicle market after its successful localized production in China, as well as rapidly braking the original structure and landscape of China’s, and even the world’s, new energy vehicle markets.