Q2 Vitamin Outlook

The vitamin market is currently experiencing notable shifts, with prices firming up across various segments. This trend is driven by limited spot supply and uncertainties derived from the aftermath of Chinese New Year (CNY) celebrations. These developments are shaping market sentiments and pricing trends, influencing the landscape for different vitamins in the upcoming months.

In the Vitamin A sector, prices are slightly firming due to local tightness, but concerns about oversupply persist, casting doubt on the sustainability of this trend. The halt in production lines at Kingdomway’s Xiamen after their site explosion for both vitamin A and D3, along with uncertainty surrounding restart schedules, adds to market uncertainty. It has also been reported that a European producer has reported to appear nearing stable output at its new formulation facility. Anticipated delays in North American shipments due to increased container freight are expected to further influence pricing in the coming months.

In the vitamin E market, prices have risen in North America due to supply shortages and disruptions in the supply chain, notably affecting local availability, especially prompt spot inventory. The Chinese New Year led to a slowdown in market activity in China, with no price offerings until after the holiday. Furthermore, the surge in container freight, derived from the Red Sea issues, along with shipment delays and the depletion of stocks from EU producers - one producer facing shortages - has resulted in limited availability. These factors collectively are expected to significantly influence market dynamics and upward trend for Q2.

Rising raw material and transportation expenses are gradually pushing prices of Vitamin B3 up, influenced by Chinese producers. Similarly, prices of B6 have now stabilized on higher levels compared to last months, manufacturers citing raw material cost behind the increase.

In contracts, prices for B5 have stabilized at historically low levels, with buyers showing interest in Q2. Higher freight costs are impacting spot prices, and market dynamics will depend on manufacturers' strategies for market share.

Chinese producers are maintaining firm prices higher than those in North America for Vitamin D, with the disruption from Kingdomway also motivating other producers to adjust pricing strategies. Although some lower-priced vitamin D3 is available, forward indications suggest prices rising, influenced by potential supply chain disruptions.

In the Vitamin B2 segment, prices are firming up. The Suez Canal issues are causing delays and shortages for spot buys. Main producers expected to push pricing to regain profitability.

Demand for B1 is increasing, and prices continue to rise driven by supply constraints and logistical challenges persisting in import activity, including container delays and higher freight costs. Overall, the market is described as firmer, with producers offering limited quantities.

For Vitamin K3, several players stopped quoting due to the Chinese New Year. Prices increased, due to expected shortage of a key intermediate and Dirox still not producing after its force majeure.

Prices of Biotin continued to drop slightly. There is still no indication of a reversal in trend, with manufacturers not willing to lose market share. Demand is low with most buyers having covered Q1 and some of Q2.

Similarly, prices of Folic Acid continued to drop slightly. Producers are adjusting output to match low demand. Prices could be affected by supply chain disruptions and increasing freight cost.

In the vitamin B12 market, prices have increased recently for Chinese material in North America due to surges in demand and limited availability. In Europe only DSM-F’s / EuroAPI’s strain is currently approved, leading to a surge in demand and price for this material (also for other geographies). CPSC & NHU have submitted dossiers for approval, but a launch is still several months away.

The vitamin market continues to navigate through a period of volatility and change. While certain segments are witnessing price firming due to limited spot supply and post-CNY uncertainties, others are faced with oversupply concerns and production disruptions. The return of Chinese market participants from holidays is expected to introduce new dynamics, potentially influencing market trends and pricing strategies. As manufacturers and distributors adapt to these evolving conditions, it is essential for industry players to remain agile and responsive to market and supply shifts. Looking ahead, careful monitoring of supply chain dynamics and consumer demand, will be crucial for navigating the vitamin market landscape and capitalizing on emerging opportunities.

Published on

18 March 2024


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